A simple scoring system for predicting early major complications in spine surgery: the cumulative effect of age and size of surgery.

Objective To analyze the cumulative effect of risk factors associated with early major complications in postoperative spine surgery. Methods Retrospective analysis of 583 surgically-treated patients. Early "major" complications were defined as those that may lead to permanent detrimental effects or require further significant intervention. A balanced risk score was built using multiple logistic regression. Results Ninety-two early major complications occurred in 76 patients (13%). Age > 60 years and surgery of three or more levels proved to be significant independent risk factors in the multivariate analysis. The balanced scoring system was defined as: 0 points (no risk factor), 2 points (1 factor) or 4 points (2 factors). The incidence of early major complications in each category was 7% (0 points), 15% (2 points) and 29% (4 points) respectively. Conclusions This balanced scoring system, based on two risk factors, represents an important tool for both surgical indication and for patient counseling before surgery.